2015 Global sales forecasts - All Electric Vehicles
2,980,000 units average sales predicted. Note the increase in Pike estimate.
2015 Global PHEV + HEV sales forecasts 2,280,000
units average sales predicted. Note that Pike predicts
an additional 740,000 fleet hybrids by 2015.
2015 Global BEV sales forecasts
660,000 units average sales predicted
2015 Lithium-Ion battery prices are forecast to drop a lot
More charge points than gas stations in 2015
2017 Global E-Cycle/Scooter sales forecasts
This market is booming according to Pike
The future electric car will improve in quality and sales numbers. For reasons given on the
previous page, EV growth in the market will be likely be slow but steady, with a possible
steep increase some years down the road. We give global forecasts on this page and regional/national forecasts on the next page.
There is a lot of information about the future of the electric vehicle. There are many studies, projections, interviews, estimates, and investigations into the coming years of EV motoring.
It is important to note:
1.These projections are constantly changing with market conditions. When oil prices were
higher, so were future electric vehicle sales estimates.
2. Future estimates are not given in the same years. Some use 2014, 2015, 2016. Others: 2017, 2015, 2020, and 2025 as planning years. We will use the year 2015 as the first prediction year.
Projections by trade groups
Here are projections from respected trade group agencies. Numbers have been rounded.
PHEV = Plug in hybrid electric vehicle, HEV = Hybrid electric vehicle, BEV = Battery electric vehicle
LDV = Light duty vehicle
The three all-electric vehicle forecasts are very close. Global light duty vehicle/passenger vehicle sales might reach 58,000,000 units by 2015. On that basis, Total EV sales would
be about 4.9% of total LDV sales. Pike Research has upgraded the total EV estimate from 2,880,000 to 3,240,000 units.
Electric Motorcycle and Scooter Sales Booming
One market segment forecast to grow rapidly is the electric motorcycle/scooter area. E-Cycles and scooters find acceptance in many urban niche markets. The 2 wheel EVs are practical, fast, fun, and very economical to own and operate.
Projections possible under changing conditions
There are several variables which, if they change significantly, will impact the EV market
in a big way.
Oil Prices: More than once in the past century, the electric vehicle has made a strong rally in the face of oil shortages, and resulting high prices. First during the early years of 1900, during oil shortages in the WW2 years, and most recently right after the Arab Oil Embargo of the 1970s, and again in 2008.
Battery Technology: There are many studies underway at this moment to refine and produce lower cost, higher density Li-Ion battery energy storage. If battery improvements can lower costs to those estimated by the US DOE, the EV sales curve will head up steeper than that predicted above.
The battery price forecasts above show a significant drop in battery prices by 2015. Since the EV battery is the highest price component of the vehicle, EV prices will drop correspondingly.
If the predictions are accurate, EV battery packs in the Nissan Leaf, could fall from about $20,000 to $12,000. The Chevy Volt battery pack would drop from about $14,000 to $8,000.
Another indication of the future of electric vehicle growth in the market is development of infrastructure. It is estimated that there will be over 10 times as many EV charge stations as gas stations by 2015.
Some 4.7 million EV charge points are estimated to be installed worldwide by 2015. Compare this to around 400,000 or less gasoline/petrol stations in 2010. Distribution of charge points will probably be concentrated in more urban areas, however.
Another way to classify projected sales data is by geographical region, and by country. The four main areas considered are: Europe, China, Japan, and the USA. Click to the next page for the regional market forecasts.