The electric car future appears to be one of slow, but steady growth, with a possible steep increase some years down the road.
As we have shown in previous pages (EV History 1-5), electric vehicles have been up and down in the market several times in the last century. However, this is most likely the century of continued EV growth, slow though it may be at first.
The reasons for electric vehicle acceptance and growth are on this page. The numbers predicted are on the next page.
EV Growth
The EV1 was a new class of high tech EV at the beginning of a new chapter in the electric car this new century. The model itself failed, but the outcry over its recall was bigger than the car, and indicative of a new trend in electric cars.
Our observation from the EV1, Think EV and others in the class is that people who do end up owning electric vehicles almost invariably like them, some to excess, as in the case of the EV1 (see Who Killed the Electric Car) protestors. EVs are fun, and people like them. We predict continued growth. But there are limits to overcome.
Below are perceptions that limit EV sales, and the realities of electric vehicles. We predict that EV growth will accelerate as the realities are realized, and other factors kick in.
EV Growth - perceptions causing limits to growth
Despite the positive experiences of EV owners and drivers, there are big bumps in the road to widespread EV adoption and sales. The main bumps are:
1. Price too high.
2. Design and looks. People connect electric car body types with bad curves. They are seen as ugly; like sheet metal experiments gone wrong.
3. Performance. This includes the dreaded range issue. Otherwise, electric cars can accelerate, stop, corner, and top out at speeds as well as any ICE.
4. Maintenance costs too high, charging is difficult.
EV Growth - realities
1.An electric car generally costs more than an ICE of similar size and performance. At present battery costs are high. Note that there are thousands of scientists, technicians,
and engineers working to improve on current battery technology. Improvements will come.
However: We note that people in the US at least are quite willing to pay as much or
more than the cost of a new electric car to obtain a large SUV or truck, which might
well be seen hauling only one driver on any given day.
If and when people finally realize that they do not need 3 tons and 300 HP to drive
5 miles get groceries, or commute 20 miles to the office, even the EV of today will
be seen to be sufficient for most urban uses. 2. Design and looks. Up until recently, most electric cars were ugly. That is changing, and thanks to the Tesla Roadster and similar models, the electric car can now compete there.
However, some EVs still retain a sort of squashed look. This is partially for efficiency, but design improvements could clearly be made.
3. Performance. This includes the dreaded range issue. Otherwise, electric cars can now accelerate, stop, corner, and top out at speeds matching any ICE.
Regarding range: Electric cars today carry the energy of a gallon of gas, or less. This limits the range to about a third of most ICE rigs. However, most urban people at least people can well operate within the range limits of EVs today. As time goes on, it is likely, nearly certain that range will extend beyond current limits.
4. Maintenance costs for electric cars are actually likely to be much lower than for any ICE on the road. The idea of high maintenance cost for the EV is just misinformation. Charging time varies with a few factors. The fact is that EVs can be charged easily now, and charging will get even easier and quicker over time.
EV Growth - changes to perceptions
As time goes on and more and more people own and drive electric vehicles, perceptions about them will merge into facts. As the facts become known, sales will very likely increase.
This process will take some years as information is slowly passed from owners to prospective buyers, and costs come down.
EV Growth - Other Factors
Unstable oil prices
Oil prices have been on the rise, and are likely to continue. However, prices tend to pull back at times, creating uncertainty. Many take a wait and see position. If oil prices continue to rise, electric vehicles will too. The price of petrol has a huge effect on transport choices.
Environmental regulation
In some countries like China, environmental regulation will have a bigger push on electric transport than even oil prices. The Chinese Government is providing consumers and manufacturers with huge incentives to go electric.
Environmental awareness
A small minority of drivers actually choose to pay a premium for electric transport out of concern for the air. Many people say they value clean air, but do not want to spend any extra time or money for it.
Battery improvements
As research into Lithium Ion and other batteries continues, battery improvements are bound to happen. The US DOE has forecast a drop the price and weight of the typical Li-Ion battery pack. The agency foresees the price dropping from around $15,000 today to $10,000 in 2015, and then down to $5,000 UDS near 2020. The same forecast calls for weight to drop from around 730lbs (330kg) to only 120lbs (55kg) near 2020.
Education
We notice that EV owners often realize the best qualities of the electric vehicle, and become devotees to the technology. Once a driver has acquired the "EV Grin" it is likely to stay. As these people gradually travel about more and more in their EVs, and educate others on EV benefits, people will slowly accept the EV facts and reject the EV myths.
It is interesting to note that in the last decade major auto manufacturers literally squashed EVs just as the education process was underway. We do not think it was coincidental.
Infrastructure improvements
There are some large (10,000 plus strong) charge point programs just now underway. As these points become established, and recognized, EV use will become more practical. Smart Grid technologies are also just beginning to become reality. The new grid will facilitate more and more home charging units.
Corporate profits
There is no success like monetary success. Corporations now invested in electric vehicle technology will begin to make profits on those investments. This will effectively weaken the oil lobby, and strengthen EV positions for investors and consumers.
Interestingly, people today are most likely to purchase an EV from one of the top three companies making the fewest BEVs. The top 3 manufacturers people would most likely buy an EV from are Toyota (17%), Honda (15%), and Ford (12%).
Brand recognition for Nissan, maker of the Leaf, is only 4%!
These are the high points to consider regarding the future of the electric car, and the electric vehicle. Growth forecast figures are on the next page.
Then again, consider VW. The corporate behemoth sold 4.75 million units in 7 months of 2011. That is closing in on 23,000 cars per day. VW forecasts that BEV sales will be 3 percent of sales by 2028.
VW expects to sell 10 million units in 2018. 3 percent would be 300,000 per year, or over 800 electric cars per day.
